CMRE Market Watch: Navigating Stable Home Sales Amidst Shifting Mortgage Rates

Welcome to the CMRE Market Watch, your essential guide to the ever-evolving real estate and mortgage landscape. This past month has presented a dynamic picture, characterized by resilient existing-home sales, persistent price growth, and mortgage rates playing a pivotal role in buyer and refinancer activity.

Existing-Home Sales Show Remarkable Stability

Despite an environment of elevated mortgage rates, the existing-home market demonstrated remarkable stability in July 2026. According to the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), sales eased slightly by 1.7% from June, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million units. However, this figure actually represents a 0.7% increase compared to July of last year, indicating a foundational resilience in demand.

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted, "Home sales have been remarkably stable, even amid the rising mortgage rate environment of the past few months." Year-to-date sales are up 2.4%, suggesting that underlying buyer interest remains strong. The primary challenge continues to be inventory; total housing supply fell to 1.54 million units, representing a lean 4.6-month supply. This scarcity continues to put upward pressure on prices.

The median existing-home price climbed to $434,100 in July, marking the 37th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases – a solid 2.0% jump from July 2025. While prices continue their ascent, there's a silver lining: affordability improved slightly, with the Housing Affordability Index rising to 103.3 from 98.3 a year ago. This suggests that while homes are pricier, purchasing power, relatively speaking, has seen a modest uplift over the past year.

Mortgage Rates & Application Activity: A Rollercoaster Ride

The mortgage market has been a tale of two weeks, showcasing how sensitive application activity is to rate fluctuations. In the week ending July 31, 2026, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 2.9% decrease in total application volume. This dip was largely attributed to a rise in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.81%, its highest level in over a year at that time.

However, the subsequent week brought a welcome reprieve. As rates moderated, mortgage application activity rebounded significantly. For the week ending August 7, 2026, total application volume increased by a solid 3.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis. This included a 3% rise in purchase applications and a 5% jump in refinance activity. Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist, highlighted that "The reprieve in rates supported an increase in both purchase and refinance applications over the week."

Despite this weekly bounce, purchase applications remained 1% below year-ago levels, and refinance applications were down a substantial 22% year-over-year, underscoring the ongoing impact of elevated borrowing costs compared to the previous year.

Here’s a look at the recent trend in key mortgage rates:

What This Means for You

The current landscape underscores a market defined by resilience and responsiveness. Homebuyers face continued competition for limited inventory, which supports home values. For those considering a purchase or refinance, monitoring mortgage rates closely remains paramount. Even small shifts can significantly impact affordability and monthly payments, as evidenced by the recent surge in application activity following a modest rate decline.

At CMRE, we understand these dynamics deeply. Whether you're navigating a purchase in a competitive market or exploring refinancing options, our expert team is here to provide personalized guidance and help you make informed decisions in today's intricate real estate and mortgage environment.